The Democratic Party’s 2026 comeback strategy isn’t theoretical anymore — it’s happening right now. In just four days, on November 4, voters in New Jersey and Virginia will decide whether two veteran Democrats can become governors and provide the blueprint for how the party retakes Congress in the 2026 midterms.

Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, is running for governor in New Jersey. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA operations officer, is running for governor in Virginia. Both are part of the 2018 Blue Wave class that flipped the House. Both have national security credentials that help them connect with independent and Republican-leaning voters. And both are being watched closely by Democratic operatives who see veteran candidates as the party’s best weapon against Republican dominance in swing districts.

Virginia and New Jersey are the only states electing governors in 2025, making them high-stakes bellwethers for the 2026 midterms. If Sherrill and Spanberger win, Democratic strategists will have proof that veteran candidates can overcome the party’s 2024 losses. If they lose, the strategy faces serious questions.

The races test whether the “national security Democrat” profile — combining military or intelligence credentials with moderate economic messaging — can win in blue-leaning states that Trump improved his performance in. New Jersey went for Harris, but Trump performed better there than in 2016 or 2020. Virginia elected Republican Glenn Youngkin as governor in 2021.

The veteran Democrat strategy isn’t just happening at the gubernatorial level. Across the country, military veterans are emerging as Democratic candidates in key 2026 races:

Graham Platner’s Maine Senate campaign exemplifies the strategy. A Marine and Army veteran who served four combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, Platner is now an oyster farmer running a populist campaign against five-term Republican Senator Susan Collins. He raised $1 million in his first nine days in the race, with 98% of donations under $100. He’s been endorsed by Bernie Sanders and has recruited over 6,000 volunteers since launching in August 2025.

Platner’s appeal crosses party lines. He’s a competitive pistol shooter and firearms instructor who grew up in rural Maine — credentials that help him connect with Trump voters. Yet he’s running on universal healthcare, supporting veterans, and ending foreign wars. This combination of military credibility and economic populism is exactly what Democratic strategists believe can flip Republican-held seats.

Beyond the high-profile gubernatorial and Senate races, veteran Democrats are running in some of the most competitive House districts that will determine control of Congress in 2026. According to NOTUS reporting, former Marines, Air Force officers, Navy pilots, and Army combat veterans have emerged as leading Democratic candidates in top battleground districts.

Navy helicopter pilot and combat veteran Erin Bennett is running in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District. She’s endorsed by both VoteVets and New Politics, organizations that specifically recruit candidates with public service backgrounds. Bennett sees her military service as a bridge to independent and Republican-leaning voters who might not normally consider a Democrat.

The power of veteran Democratic candidates lies in what strategists call the “permission structure” — they give Republican-leaning independents psychological permission to vote Democratic without abandoning their values.

A Republican-leaning independent in a swing district might think: “I’m not voting for a typical Democrat — I’m voting for a Marine who served his country.” This internal justification is worth real votes. In Arizona’s 2024 Senate race, Marine veteran Ruben Gallego outperformed Kamala Harris by 8 points with independents, winning 55%-43% while Harris lost them 47%-51% in the same state on the same ballot.

The veteran Democrat strategy faces real obstacles. Military service alone doesn’t guarantee electoral success — Susan Collins herself is a tough opponent because she’s a moderate Republican who has held Maine for five terms. Many GOP lawmakers in battleground districts are themselves veterans, including Reps. Don Bacon (Nebraska), Scott Perry (Pennsylvania), and Gabe Evans (Colorado).

Competitive Democratic primaries could also weaken eventual nominees. Graham Platner faces a crowded field in Maine that includes Governor Janet Mills, who launched her Senate campaign in late October and raised $1 million in her first 24 hours. In Michigan’s Senate race, multiple veteran and non-veteran Democrats are competing to replace retiring Senator Gary Peters, with no clear establishment favorite.

If Mikie Sherrill wins New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger wins Virginia, Democratic strategists will have powerful evidence that veteran candidates can win even in a difficult political environment. VoteVets and other Democratic groups will point to these victories as proof that the 2018 Blue Wave wasn’t a fluke — veteran Democrats can consistently outperform non-veteran Democrats in competitive races.

Conversely, if one or both lose, it complicates the narrative. It doesn’t invalidate the strategy entirely — Ruben Gallego’s Arizona Senate win in 2024 and the 2018 House victories prove veteran Democrats can win. But it raises questions about whether the strategy works in every context, or only in specific circumstances.

The Democratic Party is betting heavily on veteran candidates for 2026, and the first results come in four days. This isn’t a backup plan or a marginal strategy — it’s the party’s main approach to winning back independent voters and competing in swing districts where Democrats lost ground in 2024.

The strategy has strong historical precedent. The 2018 Blue Wave that flipped 41 House seats featured over 50 veteran Democratic candidates. Ruben Gallego’s 2024 Arizona Senate victory showed veteran Democrats can significantly outperform the top of the ticket. And early 2026 fundraising numbers suggest voters are receptive to veteran candidates like Graham Platner who combine military credibility with economic populism.

But past success doesn’t guarantee future results. The November 4 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia will provide the first hard data on whether this strategy still works in the post-2024 political environment. Democratic operatives across the country will be watching these races closely, looking for signs that veteran candidates can provide the formula for a 2026 comeback.