A Fact-Checker Took Apart an Attack Ad in Alaska. We Ran the Same Headline in July.
Key Insight: The troop pay raise vote is the most misused number in defense politics
FactCheck.org ruled in July that pro-Sullivan ads mislead when they say Mary Peltola voted against a troop pay raise. The reasoning applies to a headline we published on 22 July. So we are running it here rather than waiting for somebody else to.
What the fact-checkers actually found
On 9 July, FactCheck.org examined two Alaska ads. One came from Sullivan’s campaign. Another came from Last Frontier PAC, a super PAC backing him. Both told Alaskans that Peltola voted against a pay raise for their troops.
She did cast that vote. In July 2023 she voted against the House version of the defense bill, which carried a 5.2 percent raise. But Republicans had attached amendments to it, including one restricting abortion access for service members, and she objected to those.
Then the House and Senate negotiated. Several of the amendments she had criticized came out. She voted for the compromise, which still held the 5.2 percent raise. So did Sullivan, in the Senate.
She described the first vote at the time in a way that is hard to read as indifference to military pay.
one of the most difficult votes I’ve ever had to take
— Mary Peltola on the July 2023 defense bill, quoted by FactCheck.org
FactCheck added a second point that gets less attention and matters more. Military pay raises are set by formula. Federal law ties them to the Employment Cost Index, and Congress has to act deliberately to depart from it. Through every year of Trump’s first term and every year of Biden’s, Congress matched the index. That 5.2 percent figure was the index.
So a vote against that bill was not a vote to deny anyone a raise. It was already coming.
📅 How the same construction has run twice
Our headline, and what was wrong with it
On 22 July we published a piece called “Democrats Voted Against a Troop Pay Raise. Their Veterans Led the Way.” It opened by noting that the House had passed a defense bill carrying a raise of five to seven percent for every service member.
Every fact in that sentence is checkable and correct. But the construction is still the one FactCheck took apart, and here is why.
That bill does far more than raise pay. It renames the Department of Defense to the Department of War at a cost the Congressional Budget Office puts as high as $125 million. It bans gender-affirming care. It grows the force by roughly 41,000 people. Before going to the Senate it gets attached to the SAVE America Act, the President’s voter identification bill. Democrats also objected to a price tag that the ranking member on Armed Services put near $1.6 trillion once the Iran war is counted.
In 2023 the poison pill was abortion access. In 2026 it is gender-affirming care and a voter identification bill. Otherwise the structure hasn’t changed at all, which is why the same rebuttal works and the same attack keeps running.
What the troop pay raise vote actually bought
Here is the part that undoes our headline completely. That five to seven percent raise may never exist at all, and the reason has nothing to do with how any Democrat voted.
Back on 11 June, the Senate Armed Services Committee rejected the tiered structure the White House had asked for. In its place it proposed 3.6 percent across the board. Stars and Stripes reported it plainly: the Senate panel’s bill reduces troop pay raises.
That committee is run by Republicans. So the body that actually cut the raise is the one nobody is running ads about. Nor has any super PAC spent a dollar reminding Alaskans of it.
Meanwhile the Senate has not passed any version. Senate Democrats blocked it last week over the Iran war and the failure to consult Congress before sending forces in. Reporting by the Associated Press says a final bill may not be ready until after the midterms. As of today no service member has received a raise from this legislation, and nobody can say what the number will be.
So our headline described a settled thing that isn’t settled. Democrats voted against a bill. The bill contained a proposed raise. Whether that raise survives is a question the Senate hasn’t answered.
Strategic Insight: the attack works because the correction is four sentences long
“Voted against a pay raise for our troops” fits on a screen. Explaining it takes a paragraph about conference committees, poison-pill amendments and the Employment Cost Index. That asymmetry is the whole reason the line keeps getting used, and it is why veteran Democrats are the people most often asked to answer it. Twelve Democrats voted against the committee bill in June, and four of them served: Seth Moulton, Jason Crow, Pat Ryan and Chris Deluzio. Every one of them will face a version of this ad. Knowing the rebuttal is not the same as having time to deliver it.
The case for what we wrote
There is a case for what we wrote. It is better than we would like, and two arguments carry real weight, so both deserve stating at their strongest before we answer either one.
Now, the 2023 raise tracked the Employment Cost Index, so it was close to automatic. The 2027 proposal is not. A tiered raise of seven percent for junior enlisted ranks sits well above the formula, and Congress has to pass it for those troops to see it. On that reading, a vote against the House bill really is a vote against a raise that would not otherwise happen. That distinction is real, and our July piece sits on the right side of it.
A second defense is about who is owed the benefit of the doubt. Democrats had substantive reasons and said so at the time. Describing their vote accurately is not the same as running an ad designed to mislead. A publication that reports a vote and a super PAC that weaponises it are doing different jobs.
We accept the second point and only half of the first. Yes, the tiered raise needed a vote. But the Senate had already cut it to 3.6 percent six weeks before we wrote, which we did not mention, and a raise nobody has enacted is not a raise anybody voted to take away. Our headline told readers something had been denied. Nothing has been denied yet, because nothing has been decided.
⚡ Fast Facts: where the 2027 defense bill stands
- House vote: passed 216 to 212 on 22 July, with six Democrats in favour and seven Republicans opposed
- Pay proposal: 7 percent for E-5 and below, 6 percent for E-6 through O-3, 5 percent for O-4 and above
- Senate committee: substituted 3.6 percent across the board on 11 June
- Also in the bill: renaming the Department of Defense, a ban on gender-affirming care, and roughly 41,000 additional troops
- Attached rider: the SAVE America Act, the President’s voter identification bill
- Senate status: no floor passage; Democrats blocked advancement over the Iran war
- Timing: the Associated Press has reported a final bill may wait until after the midterms
What we are changing
Three things, stated plainly so readers can hold us to them. None of this requires anyone to take our word for it later.
So first, we will not describe a vote on a defense bill as a vote on troop pay again unless the pay provision is the thing being voted on. Second, when we report a chamber vote on a bill still in process, we will say where the bill stands. Third, we will name what else was in the bill, because a reader cannot judge a vote without knowing what the vote was about.
That July piece stays up. We would rather leave a flawed headline visible with this next to it than quietly change the record. If the conference report restores the tiered raise and Democrats vote against that, we will write it exactly that way, and the headline will be earned.
We publish the findings that go against us
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