North Carolina Senate 2026: The Military State Democrats Keep Missing

Senator Thom Tillis announced his retirement on June 29, 2025, creating North Carolina’s first open Senate seat since 2004. The Republican incumbent had grown increasingly at odds with President Trump, culminating in his vote against the president’s signature spending bill. His departure opens one of 2026’s most competitive Senate races.

The state’s fundamentals suggest a genuine toss-up. Trump carried North Carolina by 3.4 points in 2024, but Democratic Governor Roy Cooper won by 4.4 points in 2020. The state swings. It rewards candidates who can appeal beyond their base. And it has a massive military community that could tip the balance.

So who are Democrats nominating? Not a veteran. Not someone with military credentials that resonate in a state where 8% of adults served in uniform. They’re turning to Cooper, a 67-year-old career politician who spent his professional life in courtrooms and state government. He’s polling ahead of Republican frontrunner Michael Whatley, 47% to 41%, according to recent surveys. But that lead may be more fragile than it appears.

Democrats should remember what happened the last time they ran a candidate who built his brand on military credibility in North Carolina. Cal Cunningham, an Army Reserve Lieutenant Colonel, made honor and integrity the centerpiece of his 2020 Senate campaign against Tillis. Then, in early October, news broke that Cunningham had been sending sexually explicit text messages to a woman who wasn’t his wife.

The affair’s most damaging element? The woman was married to an Army veteran. The Army Reserve opened an investigation into potential violations of the Uniform Code of Military Justice’s adultery provisions. Cunningham went silent, avoiding interviews for the campaign’s final weeks.

The scandal broke on October 2, the same day Tillis tested positive for COVID-19. In a normal year, an incumbent senator’s health crisis would dominate headlines. Instead, Cunningham’s hypocrisy consumed the news cycle. The Washington Post’s final pre-election poll showed only 24% of North Carolina voters considered the affair “extremely or very important.” Most voters said control of the Senate mattered more. Yet Cunningham still lost by 1.8 points.

Cooper is a formidable candidate by conventional measures. He served four terms as Attorney General before winning the governorship twice. He’s never lost a statewide race. His approval ratings remained solid even as North Carolina trended slightly toward Republicans.

But Cooper has no military service. No national security background. No personal connection to the hundreds of thousands of families whose livelihoods depend on Fort Bragg, Camp Lejeune, Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, or the dozens of other installations scattered across the state.

This isn’t disqualifying. Plenty of successful politicians lack military credentials. However, in a state where veterans make up 8% of the adult population and where military spending drives entire regional economies, it represents a missed opportunity. Cooper will face attacks on national security, defense policy, and military funding. He’ll counter with his record as governor. Whether that’s sufficient remains an open question.

Republicans aren’t exactly loading up on veteran candidates either. Michael Whatley, Trump’s handpicked RNC Chair, leads the GOP primary field despite having zero experience as an elected official. He’s never run for anything. His credential is loyalty to President Trump, not service to the country.

There is one veteran in the Republican primary: Don Brown, a Navy JAG officer who served as a military prosecutor. Brown has written extensively about military justice and national security. His campaign emphasizes faith, family, and a return to constitutional principles.

But Brown is polling in the low single digits. Whatley’s Trump endorsement and party apparatus connections make him the overwhelming favorite. Republicans, like Democrats, appear ready to nominate a non-veteran for this open seat in one of America’s most military-dense states.

Meanwhile, in eastern North Carolina, a veteran Democrat has been doing exactly what political strategists claim can’t be done: winning in Trump country.

Representative Don Davis, an Air Force captain who spent eight years on active duty, has held North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District through two brutal election cycles. In 2022, he won 52.4% to 47.6%. In 2024, with Trump on the ballot carrying the district, Davis still prevailed 49.46% to 47.9%. He’s one of only 13 House Democrats nationwide who represents a district Trump won.

How does he do it? Davis graduated from the Air Force Academy in 1994 and served for eight years, rising to the rank of captain. He coordinated Air Force One operations at Andrews Air Force Base. He served as a mortuary officer. His service is tangible, specific, and verifiable.

After leaving the military, Davis became mayor of Snow Hill at 29. He served six terms in the North Carolina State Senate before winning his House seat. Throughout, he’s maintained a moderate profile. He was ranked the most bipartisan member of North Carolina’s congressional delegation and the most bipartisan freshman Democrat in the 118th Congress.

Davis doesn’t run as a progressive. He doesn’t run as a culture warrior. He runs as a veteran who served his country and now serves his district. In 2024, his Republican opponent was Laurie Buckhout, a retired Army colonel. Veteran versus veteran. Davis won anyway, because voters knew him, trusted him, and believed his moderate approach matched their values.

Now Republicans have redrawn his district to lean Trump +12. Davis announced in December 2025 that he’ll run again despite the gerrymandered lines. CQ Roll Call ranks him the most vulnerable House Democrat in America. But he’s not backing down. That’s what military training does to a candidate’s spine.

VoteVets, the progressive PAC that has invested heavily in veteran Democratic candidates, has a significant North Carolina presence. The organization endorsed Don Davis for his House races and backed Jeff Jackson for Attorney General. Its $1 million 2026 recruitment initiative aims to field 100+ veteran candidates across competitive races nationwide.

But in the Senate race, VoteVets faces a dilemma. Cooper, the frontrunner, isn’t a veteran. There’s no prominent veteran Democrat challenging him in the primary. The organization’s model works best when it can invest early in veteran candidates who might otherwise struggle to gain traction. In North Carolina, the train has already left the station.

This is the cost of not building a veteran recruitment pipeline years in advance. By the time a marquee open seat appears, the field is already set. Career politicians with existing donor networks and name recognition crowd out potential veteran challengers. The opportunity window closes before it ever really opened.

Cooper currently leads Whatley 47% to 41% in head-to-head polling. That’s a comfortable margin, but North Carolina has a history of tightening races. Trump’s 2024 margin of 3.4 points suggests the state’s rightward drift continues, even if Cooper’s personal popularity provides some insulation.

The military vote could be decisive. Cumberland County, home to Fort Bragg, has nearly 60,000 veterans. Wake County, which includes Raleigh, has over 51,000. Mecklenburg County, anchored by Charlotte, has nearly 48,000. These aren’t small voting blocs. In a race decided by tens of thousands of votes, how military communities perceive the candidates matters enormously.

Cooper will likely try to contrast his gubernatorial record on veterans’ issues with Whatley’s complete lack of elected experience. That’s a reasonable strategy. But it’s defensive. A veteran Democrat could make military credibility the centerpiece of the campaign rather than a box to check.

North Carolina’s 2026 Senate race illustrates a broader failure in Democratic candidate development. The party identifies veteran candidates as electorally advantageous but doesn’t systematically recruit and develop them for top-tier races.

Consider the timeline. Cooper announced his Senate candidacy in late 2025, after months of speculation. Any veteran challenger would have needed to raise millions, build statewide infrastructure, and establish name recognition in a matter of months. That’s not realistic. Veteran candidates need three to five years of development before they’re ready for Senate races.

The party should already be identifying post-9/11 veterans in their 30s and 40s who could run for state legislature, county commissioner, or city council. Those candidates become the Senate contenders of 2030 and 2032. The pipeline matters more than any individual race.

For now, Democrats will likely nominate Cooper and hope his personal popularity carries him through. He may well win. But they’ll have missed another opportunity to demonstrate that military service and Democratic values can coexist. In a state where more than 600,000 people wore the uniform, that’s not just a political failure. It’s a failure of imagination.

If there’s a silver lining for those who believe in the veteran Democrat model, it’s Don Davis. His 2026 House race will test whether a veteran Democrat can survive in a Trump +12 district. If he wins again, against those odds, he’ll have proven something extraordinary: that military credentials, bipartisan approach, and deep community roots can overcome even the most hostile electoral terrain.

Davis represents what Democrats could have in the Senate race but don’t. An Air Force Academy graduate. An eight-year veteran. A proven vote-getter in Trump territory. A moderate who works across the aisle while maintaining core Democratic values.

Maybe the lesson from North Carolina 2026 isn’t about this cycle at all. Maybe it’s about 2028, when Don Davis finishes his House career and becomes exactly the kind of statewide candidate Democrats have been missing. The pipeline works if you give it time. North Carolina just needed to start building it sooner.