Michigan Senate 2026: Democrats Face a Critical Veteran Gap in Must-Win Race

Senator Gary Peters announced on January 28, 2025 that he would not seek a third term, setting off a scramble for one of the most competitive Senate seats in the country. Michigan is one of only two states where Democrats must defend a Senate seat that Trump carried in 2024. The other is Georgia.

The math here is unforgiving. Trump won Michigan by approximately 1.4 percentage points in November 2024. In that same election, Elissa Slotkin defeated Mike Rogers by fewer than 19,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast. Slotkin’s victory came despite her party losing the presidential race in her state. She ran ahead of Kamala Harris by several points, crediting her national security background and moderate positioning for the crossover appeal.

Now Democrats must hold this seat without an incumbent’s advantage, without Slotkin’s CIA credentials, and in a midterm environment that historically punishes the president’s party. To make matters worse, they’re doing it without a single veteran in their primary field.

Three candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination. None has military experience.

Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11) enters as the establishment favorite. First elected in 2018, Stevens represents suburban Oakland County and has won backing from Senate leadership and the DSCC. She’s a strong fundraiser who survived a redistricting battle against fellow Democrat Andy Levin in 2022. Her campaign is emphasizing economic messaging around Michigan’s auto industry and tariffs.

State Sen. Mallory McMorrow became a national figure after her viral 2022 floor speech pushing back against accusations of grooming children. She’s positioned as a rising star who can energize younger voters. McMorrow has sworn off corporate PACs and taken progressive stances on Middle East policy that may complicate her general election positioning.

Abdul El-Sayed brings name recognition from his 2018 gubernatorial campaign and an endorsement from Bernie Sanders. The former Wayne County Health Director is running as an unapologetic progressive, though his policy positions on energy and manufacturing have drawn attacks from Stevens.

There was a fourth candidate. Joe Tate, the first Black Speaker of the Michigan House, entered the race with a resume that checked every box Democrats claim to value. Former NFL lineman. Marine Corps infantry officer. Two deployments to Afghanistan as a platoon commander and company executive officer. MBA from the University of Michigan. And a track record of winning in competitive territory.

But Tate suspended his campaign in August 2025 after struggling to match the fundraising numbers of his three opponents. He endorsed Stevens and returned to seeking reelection to his state House seat.

His departure left the Democratic field without a single veteran candidate. This matters because the Republican nominee is running specifically on his military and law enforcement credentials.

Former Congressman Mike Rogers is making his second consecutive run for this seat. He served as a commissioned officer in the U.S. Army from 1985 to 1989, then joined the FBI as a Special Agent from 1989 to 1994, working organized crime and public corruption cases in Chicago. He later chaired the House Intelligence Committee, overseeing the $70 billion budget for America’s 17 intelligence agencies.

Rogers came within 19,000 votes of beating Slotkin in 2024 despite being massively outspent. His campaign message centers on his national security background, support for Trump’s tariff agenda, and promises to address manufacturing costs. He has backing from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and NRSC Chair Tim Scott.

The Republican primary appears straightforward. Former Michigan GOP co-chair Bernadette Smith launched a challenge in November 2025, but Rogers enters as the overwhelming favorite after his close 2024 performance.

Elissa Slotkin won her 2024 race by running ahead of the top of the ticket. She emphasized her three tours in Iraq as a CIA analyst and her work under both Republican and Democratic administrations. Her national security credentials gave independent voters permission to split their tickets.

None of the current Democratic candidates can make the same pitch. Stevens can talk about auto manufacturing and economic policy. McMorrow can deliver viral moments on social media. El-Sayed can energize progressives. But when Mike Rogers talks about wearing the uniform, serving in combat zones, and protecting communities as an FBI agent, his opponents will have no comparable response.

This dynamic has played out before. In Arizona, Ruben Gallego’s Marine Corps combat experience helped him outperform Harris by 8 points. Veterans don’t just neutralize Republican attacks on national security. They create permission for swing voters to consider Democrats at all.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Michigan and Georgia are the only two Democratic-held seats in states Trump carried in 2024. The math is simple: Democrats cannot afford to lose either race and have any realistic path to reclaiming the majority.

NRSC Chair Tim Scott named Michigan as a priority target the moment Peters announced his retirement. National Republican money will flow here. Rogers already demonstrated he can compete in Michigan by nearly winning in a presidential year when Democratic turnout was elevated. In a midterm environment, with the traditional pattern of the president’s party losing seats, Republicans have every reason to feel confident.

Gary Peters himself served in the Navy Reserve. Elissa Slotkin worked three tours in Iraq with the CIA. Michigan Democrats have benefited from candidates who could speak credibly about national security. In 2026, they’re asking voters to break that pattern.

The Democratic primary has seven months to play out. That’s time for the race to get even nastier, for candidates to burn through campaign cash attacking each other, and for party divisions on issues like Gaza policy to deepen.

Meanwhile, Mike Rogers can spend those seven months consolidating Republican support, building a general election war chest, and positioning himself as the candidate with real-world experience in national security and law enforcement.

Democrats nationally should pay attention. If they can’t hold Michigan’s Senate seat, the path to a majority becomes nearly impossible. Peters’ retirement created a vulnerability. Joe Tate’s departure made it worse. Now the party is heading into a must-win race without the veteran advantage that proved so valuable in 2024.

There’s still time for the Democratic nominee to find ways to neutralize Rogers’ credentials, but it won’t be easy. Sometimes the candidate who shows up matters more than the money that backs them.