The most consequential Democratic primary of the 2026 cycle is taking shape in Maine. On one side stands Graham Platner, a 41-year-old Marine and Army veteran who served four combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, now running as an oyster farmer with Bernie Sanders’ endorsement and massive grassroots energy. On the other stands Janet Mills, Maine’s 77-year-old two-term governor with Chuck Schumer’s backing and the full weight of the Democratic establishment behind her.

The stakes could not be higher. Susan Collins has held Maine’s Senate seat since 1997, defeating every Democrat the party has thrown at her. Sara Gideon, the establishment favorite in 2020, lost by nearly 9 points despite outspending Collins and leading in virtually every pre-election poll. Now Democrats face a fundamental question: Do they run the same establishment playbook that has failed repeatedly, or do they try something different with a working-class veteran who has electrified the progressive base?

Recent polling suggests Maine Democrats are ready for change. A University of New Hampshire survey from October found Platner leading Mills 58% to 24% among likely Democratic primary voters. That 34-point margin came even as controversies about Platner’s past Reddit posts and a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol dominated headlines. The race has tightened since, but Platner maintains a lead in most surveys heading into December.

Platner’s Rise: Why a First-Time Candidate Is Dominating

When Graham Platner launched his campaign on August 19, 2025, few outside Maine had heard of him. Within nine days, he had raised $1 million from small-dollar donations averaging $33. By September, over 6,000 volunteers had signed up. By October, he was filling 600-person town halls across the state while Senator Bernie Sanders held arena rallies with him in Portland.

Platner’s appeal stems from a combination that establishment Democrats struggle to replicate: authentic working-class background, combat veteran status, and populist messaging that resonates with both progressives and Trump voters. He owns Waukeag Neck Oyster Company in Sullivan, serves as the town’s harbormaster, and chairs the local planning board. When he talks about Maine becoming “unlivable for working people,” he’s describing his neighbors’ struggles.

His military record gives him permission to deliver that message to audiences Democrats typically cannot reach. Platner served three tours in Iraq with the Marines (including Fallujah and Ramadi) and one tour in Afghanistan with the Army National Guard. He receives a 100% disability rating from the VA for combat injuries. When he criticizes “military adventurism” and “endless wars,” he does so with unassailable standing.

“I drink coffee every morning with guys who voted for Donald Trump,” Platner has said repeatedly. “They’re my friends. I don’t need to read another New York Times piece on how to talk to them.”

Mills Fights Back: Establishment Enters the Race

Governor Janet Mills entered the race on October 14, 2025, after months of encouragement from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. At 77, she would be the oldest freshman senator in American history if elected. She has pledged to serve only one term.

Mills brings genuine strengths to the race. She was Maine’s first female attorney general and first female governor. She has clashed publicly with the Trump administration on issues including transgender athletes, school lunch funding, and Medicaid. Her launch video emphasized her record of “standing up to bullies.”

Within 24 hours of announcing, Mills raised $1 million. The DSCC immediately threw its weight behind her campaign. Schumer called her “the best candidate to retire Susan Collins” and praised her as “a tested two-term governor.”

But Mills faces headwinds. Her approval rating among Maine Democrats has dropped from 94% in August to 83% in October, according to UNH polling. Among all Maine residents, her net approval is negative (-12 points). Many younger Democrats see her as representing exactly the kind of establishment politics they want to reject.

Surviving the Vetting: Platner’s Controversies

Shortly after Mills announced her candidacy, opposition research on Platner began surfacing. Old Reddit posts from 2013-2021 revealed inflammatory statements: asking why Black people “don’t tip,” dismissing military sexual assault, calling himself a “communist,” describing police as “bastards,” and using homophobic slurs.

Then came the tattoo. A video from Platner’s brother’s wedding showed a skull-and-crossbones tattoo on his chest that resembles the Totenkopf, a symbol used by Nazi SS units. Platner said he got the tattoo while drunk on leave in Croatia in 2007, not knowing its significance. He has since covered it with a Celtic knot design.

Platner’s political director, former State Representative Genevieve McDonald, resigned over the controversies. She said it was “not plausible” that Platner remained ignorant of the tattoo’s meaning for 18 years. CNN later reported finding Reddit posts suggesting Platner knew the tattoo’s Nazi associations years ago but didn’t see it as expressing white supremacy.

Platner has apologized for the Reddit posts, attributing them to PTSD and disillusionment after leaving the military. “I’m not proud of the person I always was,” he said. “But I also don’t get to be who I am today without that journey.”

The remarkable fact is that despite these revelations, Platner continues to lead in polls. A Maine People’s Resource Center survey from late October, conducted after the tattoo story broke, showed him leading Collins 45% to 42% in a general election matchup. Mills trailed Collins 42% to 46% in the same poll. Whatever damage the controversies have done, they haven’t erased Platner’s fundamental appeal.

Collins’ Vulnerability: Real or Overstated?

Susan Collins has defied political gravity for nearly three decades. She won her 2020 race by 9 points despite trailing in every major poll. She remains the only Republican senator from any of the 19 states that Trump did not win in any of his three presidential campaigns.

But 2026 may be different. Collins’ favorability has declined significantly. Multiple polls show her underwater, with unfavorable ratings exceeding favorable ratings by 7-10 points. A More Perfect Union poll found just 39% job approval against 49% disapproval. Her approval among Republicans is a tepid 53%.

Several factors are driving Collins’ weakness. Her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh continues to anger Democrats and independents who blame her for ending Roe v. Wade. Her support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as HHS Secretary has drawn criticism. Most importantly, her position as a “moderate” Republican has become harder to maintain as the party has moved further right under Trump.

Collins has not formally announced her reelection bid, though she has said it’s “her plan” to run. She chairs the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee. At 72, this would likely be her final term. Some Democrats still hope she retires, which would transform the race entirely.

Bernie vs. Schumer: A Proxy War for Democratic Power

The Maine primary has become a battlefield between the two most powerful figures in Democratic Senate politics. Bernie Sanders endorsed Platner on August 30, just 11 days after his campaign launch. Sanders has held rallies with Platner, defended him through the controversies, and called him “a great working-class candidate.”

“This is a guy who served four terms in combat,” Sanders said when asked about the tattoo controversy. “We are dealing with a collapsing healthcare system. As a result of Trump’s policies, 50,000 Americans may die unnecessarily every year, and you’re asking me about whether or not a guy should get a tattoo removed?”

Schumer has been equally direct in backing Mills. “She’s a tested two-term governor, and the people of Maine have an enormous amount of affection and respect for her,” he said. The DSCC has put resources behind her campaign almost immediately after she announced.

Progressive senators including Elizabeth Warren, Chris Murphy, Sheldon Whitehouse, and Andy Kim have expressed support for Platner while stopping short of formal endorsements. The primary has exposed tensions between the party’s populist and establishment wings that will shape Democratic politics for years to come.

What Happens Next

The primary is scheduled for June 9, 2026. Maine uses ranked-choice voting, which could benefit either candidate depending on how supporters of minor candidates (Jordan Wood dropped out in November to run for Congress) allocate their second-choice votes.

Several developments to watch in the coming months:

• More oppo drops: Platner’s Reddit history likely contains additional controversial posts. His opponents have incentive to release damaging material strategically throughout the primary.
• Collins’ announcement: If Collins formally announces her reelection, the race intensifies. If she retires, the dynamics shift entirely.
• Fundraising reports: Q4 2025 numbers will show whether Platner’s grassroots energy is sustainable and whether Mills’ establishment backing translates to donor enthusiasm.
• Endorsement battles: Maine’s labor unions, environmental groups, and progressive organizations will be heavily courted by both campaigns.
• Town hall attendance: Platner has drawn 600+ crowds repeatedly. If Mills cannot match that energy, it signals an enthusiasm gap that could prove decisive.

Lessons for Veteran Democrat Recruitment

Whatever happens in this primary, Platner’s campaign has already proven something important: combat veteran candidates with authentic working-class backgrounds can generate grassroots energy that establishment politicians cannot match.

His $1 million raised in nine days, 6,000 volunteers in the first month, and 34-point primary lead (before the controversies) demonstrate the electoral potential of the veteran Democrat model. Even after damaging revelations, he leads Mills in the primary and polls competitively against Collins.

For organizations like VoteVets recruiting candidates for 2026 and beyond, Maine offers clear lessons. Authenticity matters more than experience. Military service creates permission to deliver populist messages. Working-class backgrounds resonate with voters who have tuned out professional politicians.

The question is whether Platner’s specific controversies are disqualifying, or whether they represent the kind of baggage any authentic outsider candidate will carry. Establishment candidates have polished backgrounds because their lives have been lived with political careers in mind. Working-class veterans who spent years in combat zones and then struggled with PTSD may have messier histories.

Maine Democrats will render their verdict on June 9. The answer will shape Democratic politics for a generation.