Democrats need to flip just three House seats to reclaim the majority in 2026. Currently, Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District sits at the top of nearly every target list. The district stretches across Hampton Roads, Virginia Beach, Suffolk, and the Eastern Shore. It’s home to Naval Station Norfolk, the world’s largest naval base, and has one of the highest concentrations of veterans and military families in the country.

Historically, the seat has flipped three times in the past decade. First, Luria took it from Republican Scott Taylor in 2018, then held it in 2020, before losing to Kiggans by 3.4 points in 2022. Subsequently, Kiggans won reelection in 2024 by about 4 points over Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal. However, 2025’s gubernatorial results suggest the ground has shifted again.

Notably, Spanberger won VA-02 with 53% of the vote in November, outperforming Kamala Harris’s near-tie in the district by roughly 4 points. That 20,000-vote swing represents exactly the kind of margin that could flip a House seat in a midterm environment.

Elaine Luria spent 20 years in the Navy, retiring at the rank of commander. Specifically, she was one of the first women in the Navy’s nuclear power program and among the first women to serve her entire career on combatant ships. It’s a record she spent two decades to build.

During her career, she served as a nuclear-trained Surface Warfare Officer, deploying six times to the Middle East and Western Pacific. Her assignments included duty aboard destroyers, cruisers, and aircraft carriers. Additionally, she served as executive officer of the guided missile cruiser USS Anzio and commanded Assault Craft Unit TWO, a combat-ready unit of 400 sailors.

Of all House Democrats who served during her tenure, Luria had the longest active-duty record. She graduated from the Naval Academy in 1997, the same class as future New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill. Both women were part of the 2018 wave that sent an unprecedented number of female veterans to Congress.

Luria was part of the historic 2018 class that included Mikie Sherrill, Chrissy Houlahan, and Abigail Spanberger. Together, these women, many with national security backgrounds, flipped Republican districts across the country. In Virginia alone, Luria, Spanberger, and Jennifer Wexton flipped three GOP-held seats simultaneously, marking the first time in state history that three women joined the congressional delegation in the same election.

The group earned the nickname “Hell Cats” for their combination of military toughness and electoral success. Importantly, they proved that women with service backgrounds could win in swing districts where traditional Democratic candidates had struggled. Since then, Sherrill and Spanberger have parlayed that success into gubernatorial victories in New Jersey and Virginia.

Luria’s return represents a continuation of that 2018 playbook. She’s already secured endorsements from Spanberger, VoteVets, New Politics, Elect Democratic Women, former Governor Terry McAuliffe, and Virginia Senate President Pro Tempore Louise Lucas.

In 2022, Luria lost to Kiggans by 3.4 points in a brutal year for Democrats nationally. At the time, Republicans gained nine House seats overall, and redistricting had made VA-02 slightly more Republican-leaning. Furthermore, there were also specific vulnerabilities that Kiggans exploited.

Specifically, Luria’s role on the January 6th Select Committee, where she co-presented findings during primetime hearings, became a liability in the military-heavy district. As a result, some voters saw her as focused on Washington instead of local concerns. Meanwhile, Republican ads hammered the point relentlessly. In contrast, Kiggans, herself a Navy helicopter pilot, positioned herself as someone who would focus on kitchen-table issues rather than political investigations.

Now, the question for 2026 is whether that dynamic has changed. Certainly, Trump’s second term, marked by federal layoffs, government shutdowns, and economic uncertainty, may have shifted voter priorities. Consequently, Luria is betting that voters are now more concerned about chaos in Washington than they were about accountability for January 6th.

Jen Kiggans has a military background of her own. She’s a former Navy helicopter pilot and geriatric nurse practitioner who served in the Virginia State Senate before winning the House seat. On paper, she’s exactly the kind of candidate who should thrive in a district like VA-02.

However, her voting record has created openings. For instance, Luria has already attacked her for voting in favor of what Democrats describe as the largest Medicaid cuts in U.S. history. In a district with significant numbers of veterans and retirees who depend on healthcare programs, that vote could become a serious liability.

Similarly, Kiggans also flip-flopped on clean energy tax credits, initially signaling support before voting to dismantle them. Because energy costs have been a major issue in Hampton Roads, Luria is positioning herself as the candidate who will protect programs that lower utility bills.

Luria announced her campaign on November 12, 2025, one week after Spanberger’s landslide victory. Clearly, the timing wasn’t accidental. Instead, she’s framing her candidacy as a continuation of the same political energy that swept Virginia’s statewide races.

“I’ve watched the chaos here in Washington,” Luria told NBC News. “Really, it’s a do-nothing Republican Congress, and they haven’t even been to work for about 50 days. I said to myself, this is the time for me to continue to serve in that capacity.”

Her campaign will focus on three pillars: lowering costs for working families, expanding economic opportunity in Hampton Roads, and holding Trump accountable for January 6th. Notably, that last point is a calculated risk. Essentially, she’s betting that what hurt her in 2022 might help in 2026, with voters more frustrated by Trump’s second term.

“I stand by that work,” Luria said of her January 6th committee role. “I did it knowing it could have political consequences. But I don’t do anything for the purpose of being politically expedient. It was the right thing to do.”

Luria isn’t the only Democrat running. In fact, six other candidates had already entered the race before she announced, including Matt Strickler, a former Virginia cabinet secretary and VMI graduate. Therefore, a crowded primary could drain resources and force Luria to tack left to secure the nomination, potentially weakening her in the general election.

Nevertheless, her early endorsements from Spanberger and the Democratic establishment suggest the party wants to consolidate behind her quickly. For example, Michael Williamson, a former VA-02 candidate, dropped out and endorsed Luria on the day she announced. That kind of coordination signals that party leaders view her as the strongest general election candidate.

The primary is scheduled for June 2026. If Luria can secure the nomination without a bruising fight, she’ll have several months to focus entirely on Kiggans.

Several factors will determine whether Luria can reclaim her old seat. First, Trump’s approval ratings, currently in the mid-30s nationally, will shape the overall environment. Second, the economy, particularly inflation and housing costs, will drive voter concerns in Hampton Roads. Third, turnout among military families and veterans, traditionally a Republican-leaning group, could swing either way.

Meanwhile, redistricting is another wildcard. Currently, Virginia Democrats are pursuing a constitutional amendment that could allow them to redraw congressional lines before 2026. If successful, VA-02 could become more Democratic-leaning, though the timeline is tight.

For now, the race is rated as one of the most competitive in the country. Cook Political Report has it as Lean Republican, but that was before Spanberger’s November performance reshaped expectations.

Indeed, VA-02 is perhaps the most military-dependent congressional district in the country. Naval Station Norfolk alone employs tens of thousands. Additionally, one-quarter of all U.S. shipbuilding and repair happens in the Hampton Roads region. Voters here don’t just respect military service; they live alongside it.

That context makes Luria’s 20-year Navy career more than a biographical detail. As a commander, she led sailors at the same installations where voters work. Her deployments launched from the same ports their family members ship out from. And after navigating the bureaucratic challenges of military life for two decades, she understands those frustrations firsthand.

Of course, Kiggans has military credentials too, which neutralizes some of that advantage. Nevertheless, Luria’s longer service record and combat ship experience give her a stronger claim to understanding the district’s core constituency.

Ultimately, Elaine Luria’s comeback bid will serve as a test case for the Veteran Democrat strategy in 2026. Can a candidate who lost in 2022’s red wave environment win in what Democrats hope will be a blue wave midterm? Moreover, can the playbook that worked in 2018 work again eight years later?

So far, the early indicators are promising. Specifically, Spanberger’s gubernatorial performance shows the district is winnable for the right Democrat. Luria’s endorsement list suggests party unity. Furthermore, Trump’s low approval ratings create a favorable national environment.

Still, elections are won on the ground, not in prediction models. Luria will need to convince Hampton Roads voters that she’s focused on their concerns, not Washington drama. Likewise, she’ll need to survive a primary without depleting her resources. Above all, she’ll need to make the case that her experience matters more than Kiggans’s incumbency.

If she succeeds, VA-02 could be one of the seats that flips the House. For Democrats, that’s worth fighting for.